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As the war in Iran expands, can diplomacy help end it?

ADRIAN MA, HOST:

As the war with Iran enters its fourth week, President Trump said on Friday, he's considering, quote, "winding down" military efforts in the region. But ending the conflict may not be that easy. Iran has continued its retaliatory attacks, including an unsuccessful attempt to bomb the Diego Garcia air base, which is managed by U.S. and U.K. militaries.

And that came after a week of bombings in Iran targeting strategic sites and killing some of the country's top leaders. One of them was Ali Larijani, the country's top civilian leader. Before he was killed, Larijani was seen as someone who might be willing to negotiate with the West, and all of this leaves the path to a negotiated peace murky.

Hossein Mousavian is a former Iranian nuclear negotiator. He's also a former policy advisor to Ali Larijani. He's currently a research collaborator at Princeton University's program on science and global security, and he joins us now. Thanks for being here.

HOSSEIN MOUSAVIAN: Thank you.

MA: So on Friday night, President Trump announced on social media that he's considering winding down military efforts in the region. What was your reaction to that?

MOUSAVIAN: Actually, the president said he wants to wind it down in another interview. Also he said the same - he said, the war will end very soon. However, in another interview, he asked, why should we have a ceasefire when we are defeating Iran? I really don't know which statement reflects the president's real intention. Nevertheless, I hope a decision is made to bring this war to an end because so far, Iran, Israel and the U.S. have all suffered unprecedented losses.

MA: So it's sending mixed messages there. And this follows, as we said, killings over the last three weeks of some top-level officials in Iran - Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a public policy advisor to Iran's supreme leader, was killed. And from a high level, what do you think will be the lasting impact of these assassinations?

MOUSAVIAN: The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, specifically assassinating the top levels, has ignited two powerful dynamics within the country - nationalism and Shiite ideology. People inside Iran have witnessed practically - I mean, daily, they have witnessed that over the past three weeks of the U.S-Israeli war, more than 10,000 civilians have been killed or injured. And approximately, I would say, 200 Iranian officials have been assassinated by the U.S.-Israeli wars since 2025. Yet you see or you have seen, even under bombardments, tens of thousands of people have participated in their funeral ceremonies. In Shia tradition, there is a concept whereby those who are killed in the path of Islam or their homeland are regarded as martyrs or are viewed as heroes. This phenomena now is unfolding in the case of assassination of Iranian officials.

MA: So in this current climate, it seems that more power is shifting to the Revolutionary Guard. What should we understand about that?

MOUSAVIAN: During past 15 years, working at Princeton University as academic with my experience of 40 years working on Iran-U.S. relations, advocating peace between Iran and U.S. relations, I have explained in my books, in many articles, that more sanctions, more pressures, more coercion would radicalize Iran more and more and more. And this is exactly when the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal, Iran increased the level and the capacity of enrichment. And now the U.S. attacked Iran - I think it's normally when a country is attacked, the military would take over the country practically.

MA: You refer to the earlier nuclear negotiations, and it's believed that Iran has a stockpile of about 400 kilograms of enriched uranium. What do you think will happen to that stockpile?

MOUSAVIAN: See, I mean, here is the reality that during negotiations between the U.S. representative - Witkoff, Kushner - with Iranian representative in February 2026, the Iranian negotiator very clearly explicitly told the American side, if there is a deal, we would be ready to dilute the whole high-level enriched uranium 60%. We will be ready to give it up. This was mentioned officially in the - by the Iman foreign minister. Even lately - I don't know whether you read the article at The Guardian - the U.K. National Security Advisor attended in the last meeting, February 2026, just this year, and he also confirmed that Iran was ready to give up the total 60% of stockpile enriched uranium. Therefore, if there is a deal, Iran has no problem. Iran is not going to keep it.

MA: Though a deal does seem hard to imagine at this particular moment, do you think there's still room for diplomacy, given that the U.S. started this war in the middle of what were apparently productive negotiations?

MOUSAVIAN: Frankly speaking, that would be very difficult, complicated because the U.S. attacked Iran. As the Omani foreign minister said, there was two times negotiation. It was - there was significant progress. They were very close to reach a deal, but the U.S. decided to attack. Therefore, trust is gone. Nevertheless, I don't believe that the door for diplomacy is totally closed, nevertheless. I really don't know what type of deal the U.S. is looking for with Iran. You heard Prime Minister Netanyahu saying the Israeli strategy is greater Middle East. You heard American ambassador in Israel said, Israel has a right to take over the Middle Eastern countries. And I really don't know if this is really the objective - regime change, taking over Iranian oil, wealth - never there would be a deal.

MA: We've been speaking with Hossein Mousavian, former Iranian nuclear negotiator. Thank you so much for taking the time.

MOUSAVIAN: Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

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Adrian Ma covers work, money and other "business-ish" for NPR's daily economics podcast The Indicator from Planet Money.
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Michael Levitt
Michael Levitt is a news assistant for All Things Considered who is based in Atlanta, Georgia. He graduated from UCLA with a B.A. in Political Science. Before coming to NPR, Levitt worked in the solar energy industry and for the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington, D.C. He has also travelled extensively in the Middle East and speaks Arabic.