LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Let's dig a little deeper now with Suzanne Maloney. She's an expert on Iran who served in the policy planning staff of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in the George W. Bush administration. She was also an external adviser to State Department officials in the Obama administration. She's now vice president and director for foreign policy at the centrist think tank the Brookings Institution. Good morning.
SUZANNE MALONEY: Good morning.
FADEL: So President Trump says the U.S. has achieved its objectives. Iran's leaders are framing this as a victory for them, that nearly all of Iran's objectives were met. How do you see it?
MALONEY: Well, I think both sides agreed to compromise, at least temporarily. The Iranians did not achieve a permanent end to the hostilities. They don't have any guarantees that the war won't resume. But from Tehran's perspective, the regime has remained intact. They appear to have formalized some control over the Strait of Hormuz. That will be the subject of the negotiations that are to come. And they have preserved control over society through 40 days of a very difficult war by two technologically and militarily superior adversaries. So I think in Tehran, this is going to be seen as a victory for the regime.
FADEL: I mean, it has taken a beating militarily, right? Missiles and drones diminished. And yet, it seems like you're saying they've come out kind of OK.
MALONEY: I think the regime will believe that it has come out stronger, at least temporarily. And, of course, as your reporting noted, it's unclear how long this ceasefire will last. It's unclear what can be achieved in terms of a permanent set of arrangements. The United States has a number of very tough conditions that it intends to impose on the Iranians. And so we may only see this as an interlude. But the fact is that the regime, despite decapitation strikes, despite the pounding and the pummeling of the U.S. and Israeli militaries, still retains control. And from the perspective of the political elite in Iran, that's all they really care about. Obviously, the Iranian people have suffered immensely and continue to suffer under conditions of an internet blackout and tremendous civilian damage to both economic infrastructure and, of course, casualties.
FADEL: Now, you point out that it's unclear how sustainable this ceasefire is and how long it will last. There also doesn't seem to be an agreement about what is actually in the deal. Pakistan, which has been mediating, says it includes Lebanon. Israel says it does not. How do you expect this will be resolved?
MALONEY: I think that's one of the key aspects of the negotiations that are going to take place on Friday, how wide-ranging and what does this deal, in fact, encompass? And I would not expect that the Israelis will back off in Lebanon, and this will be, I think, a point for the Iranians to determine how they proceed, what they're prepared to accept. My guess is that if they can maintain the regime and maintain at least some ability to monetize control of the Strait of Hormuz as a means of trying to improve their economic condition, then they may be prepared to compromise on that. You know, the other questions about whether they will accept the U.S. demands to cease all enrichment, to impose limits on the missile program, to end the support for its proxies in the region. Those don't appear in the kind of formal terms of the agreement overnight, but we will have to see if, you know, that can be achieved at the negotiating table.
FADEL: There's been immense human suffering, a lot of killing of people, civilians, included in Iran. But diplomatically, economically, strategically, is it possible that this regime stands to gain?
MALONEY: I think that the regime, unfortunately, will be stronger after this conflict than it was going into the conflict, but, you know, Iran is a complicated place, and we will see how that stands over the course of the weeks and months to come. It's also quite likely the conflict will reemerge and we will find ourselves back in the situation that we were facing yesterday.
FADEL: That's Suzanne Maloney at the Brookings Institution. Thank you for your time and your insights.
MALONEY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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