STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
OK. Oil prices are falling this morning, as you would imagine. Global investors are absorbing the news of this ceasefire and an end, for the moment, of a threat to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Asian and European markets rallied, with Japan's Nikkei gaining the most in almost a year. On Wall Street, Dow futures are up more than a thousand points ahead of the market's open.
INSKEEP: Sounds pretty good. Let's talk it through, though, with NPR's Maria Aspan. Good morning.
MARIA ASPAN, BYLINE: Good morning.
INSKEEP: OK. What are investors seeing and feeling?
ASPAN: So there is a whole lot of relief out there, but I hate to throw some cold water on this. We have to see how long it will last because this is just the latest twist in what's already been a really turbulent spring for Wall Street and global markets. Investors are swinging from hope to fear and back again. Last week, Wall Street had its best day since last spring. But stocks are still down since the start of the year, and U.S. markets just ended their worst quarter in nearly four years.
INSKEEP: Yeah. I was just looking at this chart. It's a steady path downward. Has that just been about the war?
ASPAN: There is more going on in the markets. But, Steve, the war is absolutely the biggest story right now. It's already created an energy crisis with the virtual shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. And as you know, that's made oil prices soar, which affects not only what we pay at the gas pump, but also what companies pay for shipping and trucking. And that then increases what we as consumers pay for everything. And then meanwhile, as President Trump makes threats and then de-escalates the war, there's just been this tremendous whiplash on Wall Street as markets sell off and then rally. I talked about all this last week with Katie Klingensmith. She's the chief investment strategist for the financial adviser Edelman Financial Engines.
KATIE KLINGENSMITH: What we often see during times of heightened uncertainty and volatility is we'll see a big day in markets, then a terrible day in markets, then a big day in markets, then a terrible day in markets. Nobody enjoys that.
ASPAN: And as she points out, that can make everyone just not sure what to do next, whether we're talking investors on Wall Street or all of us on Main Street.
INSKEEP: Let's just talk about reality here, though. The president says extreme things all the time and then backs away almost all the time. Why have investors this year been reacting in such extreme ways - sell, buy?
ASPAN: Well, the Iran war is a little different than all the tariffs whiplash we saw last year. I mean, what happens next in this case is not just up to the president. A lot does depend on how Iran responds to what he does. And the war has already had that real impact on gas and diesel prices. That's maybe more immediate than the price spikes we saw with some of the more extreme tariffs Trump unveiled a year ago and then kind of moderated. A war is also just harder to unwind than tariffs. This is how Klingensmith puts it.
KLINGENSMITH: We are likely to see higher oil prices even if we see a quick de-escalation of the conflict because there has been extensive structural damage done to oil refineries and infrastructure in the Middle East.
ASPAN: And as she points out, that damage will take a lot more time to fix, even if the war ends tomorrow.
INSKEEP: Are investors and observers ever suspicious about the way the president keeps moving the markets up and down?
ASPAN: Well, some investors tell me this is just what Trump does and says. This is how he negotiates. And they're trying to shrug off the noise and remain focused on what else is going on in the economy. But what the president does and says still has real impact in the markets. His threat yesterday to wipe out civilization pushed markets down. The ceasefire seems likely to push them back up. And to your point, Steve, this is a pattern that we've seen a few times since the war began. And observers have noticed a lot of well-timed stock trades in both traditional markets and the newer prediction markets.
INSKEEP: NPR's Maria Aspan, thanks so much.
ASPAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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