A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
The GOP-led Senate returns from recess today to move a multitrillion-dollar budget plan that carries the bulk of President Trump's domestic policy agenda.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Senators have been sent a House-passed plan that Democrats criticize and that some Republicans doubt. It extends tax cuts and adds some new tax cuts. It makes big changes to defense, energy and immigration policy. It cuts some spending, although overall, it calls for even more borrowing than would otherwise be the case.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales is here to tell us all about it. Just one vote, Claudia. It just passed by one vote in the Republican-led House. What do we expect in the Senate?
CLAUDIA GRISALES, BYLINE: That's right, A. And we just expect a lot more of the same, but just multiply the intensity, as Republicans in the Senate have a very different balancing act than the House. And Senate Republicans can only lose three votes to get this across the finish line. We're hearing some already raising concerns about provisions in this bill, and the upper chamber also faces tougher procedural hurdles that could shape the final version of this plan. So we expect some pretty tough negotiations to get this done by their July 4 deadline, which, by the way, is driven in part by the bill's provision to lift the federal debt limit. And that's got to happen this summer to avoid a catastrophic financial default.
MARTÍNEZ: Sounds like a lot riding on this bill, Claudia.
GRISALES: Right.
MARTÍNEZ: So what else is in the package?
GRISALES: Right. It extends tax cuts for individuals and businesses as part of a package that was passed under Trump's first term. And there's also a lot of his big campaign promises, like eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay. But this all comes with a pretty big price tag, more than $4 trillion. So one area they're targeting for savings is cuts to Medicaid. Deficit hawks want to see big reductions there that could lead to millions to lose coverage. And that's a big red line for some senators like Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. So a balancing act for Senate Majority Leader John Thune to navigate all these competing demands from his party and President Trump.
MARTÍNEZ: Then given those competing demands, how might this bill evolve or maybe even change in the Senate?
GRISALES: Well, I'm told that about 60% or more of this bill is going to stay intact. But when we talk about these bigger pieces of the plan, such as changes to Medicaid, that's likely the largest fight that Senate Republicans will face. And given those concerns, we expect to see resistance to deep cuts to Medicaid from more moderate Senate Republicans. At the same time, if Republicans try to cut back on these reductions, that could upset lawmakers who want bigger spending cuts. So another tough fight could come over repealing tax breaks for clean energy passed by Democrats. As it happens, some Republicans want to look at revising this. And another thing to watch out for is under Senate rules, any provision of this bill that doesn't have a budget impact could have to go.
MARTÍNEZ: All right, tell us about the tea leaves. How can Republicans get this done, or if they can get this done?
GRISALES: Right, it's going to be tough. To pass this bill, Republicans are using a special budget rule to avoid a filibuster by Democrats, but that also means that any changes in the bill will need to go back to the House for approval. And getting it through the first time, we saw how brutal that was. So any changes there could mean Republicans could risk another big fight and blowing their deadline.
MARTÍNEZ: That's NPR's congressional correspondent, Claudia Grisales. Thanks a lot.
GRISALES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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